The proportion of students graduating with first class degrees in the UK has nearly doubled over the past 15 years. Across much of the sector, that rise has coincided with falling average entry qualifications. At the most selective universities the picture is more nuanced, but the broader trend has reshaped how employers and postgraduate institutions read degree classifications across the board.
Grade inflation in UK universities has been building steadily since the mid-2010s, accelerated sharply during the pandemic, and has since become one of the most discussed topics among employers, postgraduate admissions teams and education policymakers. For students applying to Russell Group and G5 universities today, understanding what it means and what it does not mean is more useful than most application guides will tell you.
This article examines the data, explains where the trend came from, looks at how it varies across institutions and subjects, and sets out what it actually means for applicants targeting the most selective universities in the country. If you are serious about where your degree will take you after graduation, this is worth understanding properly.
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Grade inflation in UK universities is real and well-documented. First class degree rates in England rose from 16% in 2010/11 to approximately 32% by 2021/22, a near-doubling that occurred even as average student entry qualifications across the broader sector were falling.
The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated an existing trend rather than creating a new one, with first class rates peaking at around 35% in 2020/21 before partially correcting to 29-30% by 2024/25.
The practical consequence for applicants is this: a first class degree carries less differentiating power than it did ten years ago when considered in isolation, but a first from a highly selective institution with rigorous assessment practices remains a strong and credible signal. Where you study matters more in a grade-inflated landscape than it did before, which makes the application stage more consequential than ever. What the evidence also shows, and this is less widely understood, is that the strongest predictor of achieving a first is the academic foundation built before university, not just the effort made during it.
What Is Grade Inflation?
Before looking at the data let’s see what grade inflation actually means.
Grade inflation refers to a rise in the grades awarded to students that is not explained by a corresponding rise in their underlying academic ability or preparation. In other words, students are receiving higher marks and better degree classifications not because they are performing at a higher level, but because the standards used to award those grades have shifted, whether deliberately or as the unintended consequence of changes to assessment, marking practices or institutional policy.
It is a subtly different concept from students simply doing better. If entry qualifications rise, if teaching improves, if assessment becomes more effective at measuring genuine learning, all of these could legitimately produce better degree outcomes without any inflation at all. The concern about grade inflation arises specifically when grades rise while the underlying indicators of student ability and preparation stay flat or decline.
What Does Grade Inflation Mean in UK Universities?
In the UK, the stakes attached to degree classification are unusually high. Unlike some other higher education systems where grades are treated as a continuous spectrum, the UK undergraduate degree system collapses years of academic work into a single classification band: first, 2:1, 2:2 or third. Most leading graduate employers set a minimum threshold of a 2:1 for entry onto graduate programmes, and the most competitive firms and postgraduate institutions increasingly expect a first.
This binary quality to the system means that small shifts in where the classification boundaries land can have an outsized effect on outcomes. A student whose overall mark sits at 68% graduates with a 2:1. A student at 70% graduates with a first. The difference in life outcomes between those two students, in terms of graduate employment prospects, postgraduate admissions and early career earnings, can be significant despite a two percentage point gap in underlying performance.
When grade inflation pushes more students above the 70% threshold without a corresponding improvement in the quality of their work, it dilutes the signal that a first class degree sends to employers and postgraduate selectors. That dilution is at the heart of why grade inflation matters, not as an abstract policy question, but as something with direct consequences for how your degree will be read by the people who matter most after graduation.
If you are weighing up which subjects tend to be most demanding at degree level, our guide to the hardest degrees in the UK is a useful companion read, since subject difficulty and first-class award rates are still closely connected.
How Is Grade Inflation Measured in the UK?
The primary source for tracking grade inflation in the UK is the Office for Students (OfS), the independent regulator for higher education in England, which publishes regular analyses of degree classification data across the sector. The Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) collects and curates the underlying data from universities, covering the full distribution of degree classifications awarded each year across all institutions and subjects.
The key signal researchers and policymakers look for is the divergence between two trends: the proportion of students achieving first class degrees over time, and the average entry qualifications of those students. When first class rates rise while entry qualifications stay flat or fall, the divergence cannot be explained by students arriving better prepared. That unexplained gap is the measurable fingerprint of grade inflation.
It is also worth understanding what this data cannot tell us. It cannot prove that any individual student’s degree was undeserved. It cannot identify which institutions or departments are responsible for the trend. And it cannot fully disentangle the effect of genuine improvements in teaching and assessment design from the effect of standards drift. What it can do, and does clearly, is establish that something structural has changed in how UK universities award their top classifications, and that the change is too large and too consistent to be explained away.
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Grade Inflation in UK Universities: What the Data Shows
The numbers behind grade inflation in UK universities are striking enough that they are worth setting out clearly before moving to interpretation. The data comes from two main sources: sector-wide figures published by the Office for Students and HESA, and institution-level findings from a nine-year longitudinal study of nearly 9,000 STEM students at a Russell Group university conducted by researchers at the University of Liverpool.
How First Class Degree Rates Have Changed Over Time
According to the OfS data, approximately 16% of graduating students in England received a first class degree in 2010/11. By 2021/22, that figure had risen to around 32%, a near-doubling in just over a decade. The most recent HESA data covering the 2024/25 academic year shows a partial correction to approximately 29-30%, but that figure remains nearly double the 2010/11 baseline.
First class degrees awarded in England (%)
Academic years 2010/11 to 2024/25 — Sources: Office for Students, HESA
Note: 2020/21 spike reflects COVID-19 emergency assessment changes. 2024/25 figure is approximate based on latest HESA data.
First class degree rates in the UK rose from 16% in 2010/11 to a peak of approximately 35% in 2020/21, before partially correcting to around 29-30% by 2024/25, still nearly double the pre-pandemic baseline. Sources: Office for Students, HESA.
What makes this rise particularly striking is that it did not occur alongside a corresponding improvement in student entry qualifications across the broader sector. HESA data shows that average UCAS Tariff scores among incoming students have been falling at many institutions over the same period that first class rates were rising.
The institution-level study by Low and Kalender found that at the Russell Group university they analysed, mean entry Tariff scores fell consistently from 2017/18 onwards, precisely the years when first class degree rates were rising most sharply. Students were arriving less well-prepared on paper and leaving with better degrees. The Office for Students describes this divergence as “widespread unexplained grade inflation” across the higher education sector.
It is also worth noting that this trend did not begin with the pandemic. First class rates were already rising significantly from 2015/16 onwards. The pandemic accelerated something that was already well underway.
Did COVID-19 Make Grade Inflation Worse?
Yes, measurably so, though the pandemic exposed and amplified an existing trend rather than creating a new one.
When the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted university assessment in 2019/20 and 2020/21, institutions across the sector responded by replacing traditional examinations with continuous assessment formats, extending submission deadlines, introducing no-detriment policies that prevented students’ grades from falling below their pre-pandemic averages, and in some cases adjusting marking criteria to account for the disruption students were experiencing. These were understandable and largely well-intentioned responses to an unprecedented situation.
The effect on degree classifications was significant. At the Russell Group institution studied by Low and Kalender, first class rates peaked at 41.5% in 2020/21, up from 27.4% in 2013/14. In the researchers’ multivariate model, which controlled for entry qualifications and all other variables, the odds of achieving a first in 2020/21 were 2.57 times higher than in 2013/14. That is not a marginal shift. It represents a fundamental change in what a first class degree meant in that year, at that institution, relative to the baseline.
The sector-wide picture tells a similar story. Office for Students data shows first class rates across the UK reaching approximately 35% in 2020/21, up from 30% the year before. A five percentage point rise in a single year, attributable almost entirely to emergency assessment changes, is the kind of shift that does not go unnoticed by employers or postgraduate admissions teams.
Has Grade Inflation Started to Reverse?
Partially, but the correction has been modest and the sector remains structurally elevated above where it was before grade inflation took hold.
By 2021/22, as universities returned to more traditional assessment formats, first class rates began to fall. The most recent HESA data for 2024/25 puts the sector-wide figure at approximately 29-30%, down from the 2020/21 peak but still well above the 16% recorded in 2010/11. At the Russell Group institution study, rates had corrected to 35.9% by 2021/22, a meaningful drop from the pandemic peak, but nearly eight percentage points above the 2013/14 baseline.
The trajectory suggests that the pandemic-era spike is unwinding, but the longer-term upward trend that preceded it has not reversed. The baseline has shifted. A first class degree is simply more common now than it was fifteen years ago, and the partial post-pandemic correction has not brought rates back to pre-inflation levels.
For applicants, this has a practical implication that goes beyond statistics. The employers and postgraduate institutions that matter most to Oxbridge and G5 graduates know the data. They know which years were affected by emergency assessment, which institutions have historically high first-class award rates, and which subjects tend to award firsts more generously than others. In that context, the institution behind your degree classification carries more interpretive weight than it ever has, which is one of several reasons why the application decisions you make now have consequences that extend well beyond the offer you receive.
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Does Grade Inflation Affect All Universities Equally?
The short answer is no.
Grade inflation is a sector-wide phenomenon in the sense that the data shows a consistent upward trend across UK higher education as a whole. But the scale of that trend varies significantly between institutions, and the most selective universities, including Oxbridge, G5 and other leading Russell Group institutions, have generally been more conservative in their grading practices than the broader sector average.
This does not mean that grade inflation has left the most selective universities untouched. The pandemic-era spike affected virtually every institution in the country, and the longer-term upward trend has been present to some degree across the sector. But the gap between institutions that have historically awarded firsts to 20% of their students and those awarding firsts to 40% or more is real, persistent, and well understood by everyone who uses degree classifications as a signal of academic quality.
Grade Inflation at Russell Group Universities
Russell Group universities collectively have tended to sit below the sector average in terms of first-class award rates, though there is meaningful variation within the group. The institutions at the top of that group, particularly those with the most competitive entry requirements and the most rigorous assessment practices, have maintained relatively stable grading cultures even as the broader sector shifted around them.
This matters for two reasons. First, a first class degree from an institution known for conservative grading is a stronger signal than the same classification from an institution with historically high award rates, regardless of what the formal definition says. Employers and postgraduate admissions teams at the most competitive organisations understand this and factor it into their reading of applications. Second, the partial post-pandemic correction has been more pronounced at some institutions than others, meaning the 2024/25 data does not tell a uniform story across the sector.
For students targeting Oxbridge and G5 universities specifically, it is worth understanding that these institutions operate grading cultures that have remained among the most rigorous in the country. A first from Oxford, Cambridge, Imperial, UCL or LSE continues to carry significant weight precisely because it is awarded against a standard that has not drifted as far as some other institutions. That credibility is part of what makes the application worth the effort.
Does Grade Inflation Vary by Subject?
Significantly, yes. First-class award rates vary enormously depending on what you study, and this variation existed before grade inflation became a widespread concern. It has been amplified rather than created by the broader trend.
Data from the nine-year Russell Group study by Low and Kalender illustrates the range clearly. Physics and Computer Science awarded first class degrees to around 50% of students over the study period, while Psychology awarded firsts to just 21.5%. Engineering, Chemistry and Mathematics sit at various points between those extremes. These differences reflect a combination of factors: the difficulty of achieving very high marks in subjects with objective right and wrong answers, the culture of assessment within different academic departments, and the self-selection of highly prepared students into certain programmes.
First class degree rates by STEM subject
Russell Group university, 2013/14 to 2021/22 — Source: Low & Kalender (2024), University of Liverpool
Note: Civil Engineering and Electrical Engineering have smaller student populations in the dataset and should be interpreted with caution.
The practical implication is that comparing first-class award rates between subjects without accounting for these structural differences is misleading. A first in Physics from a selective Russell Group university and a first in a subject with historically high award rates from a less selective institution are not equivalent signals, even though both formally meet the same 70% threshold.
What Grade Inflation Means for Russell Group Applicants
Understanding the data is one thing. Knowing what to do with it is another. This section is the most directly useful for anyone currently navigating a university application.
How Employers and Postgraduate Institutions Respond to Grade Inflation
Most top graduate employers, including Magic Circle law firms, bulge bracket investment banks, top management consultancies and leading postgraduate institutions, have been tracking degree classification trends for years. They contextualise every classification they see against the institution that awarded it, the subject in which it was achieved, and the year in which the student graduated.
Research by the Institute for Fiscal Studies found that the earnings premium for achieving a first over a 2:1 varies significantly by subject and institution. For law and economics graduates, degree classification has a substantial impact on early career earnings. For some other subjects, the difference is considerably smaller. At the most selective universities, the IFS research found that the premium for a first over a 2:1 is near zero for women, while for men it remains around 14%. These findings are counterintuitive and not widely understood, but they reinforce a central point: degree classification is never read in isolation. Context always matters.
Does a First Class Degree Mean Less Than It Used To?
In one narrow sense, yes. A first class degree is more statistically common than it was fifteen years ago, which means the classification alone is a less powerful differentiator than it once was when considered without context. In 2010/11, achieving a first placed a graduate in the top 16% of their cohort. By 2021/22, the same classification placed them in the top 32%. That shift is real and has not gone unnoticed.
In a broader sense, however, the answer is not as simple. A first class degree from a highly selective institution with rigorous assessment practices, achieved in a subject with competitive award rates, continues to be a strong and credible signal. The classification has not lost its meaning universally. What has changed is the interpretive work required to read it properly. Grade inflation has made context more important, not the classification less so.
For students targeting the most competitive graduate outcomes after Oxbridge or G5, the honest advice is this: aim for a first, but understand that where you get it and what you studied will shape how much it is worth to the people reading your application.
Why Institution Choice Matters
If grade inflation has done one thing for prospective applicants, it has made the institution choice more consequential than it was in a less inflated environment. When first class degrees were rare and consistently awarded against rigorous standards across the sector, the institutional signal mattered less. When they are common and awarded against variable standards, the institution becomes a primary differentiator.
This is one of the less discussed but more important reasons why targeting Oxbridge, G5 and leading Russell Group universities is a rational strategy for students with the academic profile to compete. The degree you leave with from one of those institutions carries an institutional signal that the classification alone cannot convey from a less selective alternative. That signal compounds over a career in ways that are difficult to quantify but consistently evident in graduate outcome data.
If institution matters more than ever, the application stage is where that decision is made and won.
Oxbridge and G5 universities remain the gold standard precisely because they have not followed the grade inflation trend. UniAdmissions Oxbridge Programmes are built for students who want to compete for a place at those institutions — and to make the most of it once they get there.
What This Means If You Are Applying to University Now
The grade inflation debate can feel abstract when you are in the middle of preparing a UCAS application. The practical implications are worth stating directly.
Should Grade Inflation Change How You Choose a University?
Yes, though perhaps not in the way you might expect. The case for targeting selective institutions has always rested on academic reputation, research quality and graduate outcomes. Grade inflation adds a further dimension: in a landscape where degree classifications are awarded against increasingly variable standards across the sector, graduating from an institution known for rigorous assessment is a stronger signal than it was before. The most competitive employers and postgraduate programmes already factor this in. Choosing a university with that understanding is simply making a more informed decision.
Should Grade Inflation Change How You Choose a Degree Subject?
It should be one factor among several, but certainly not the dominant one. Choosing a subject primarily because it has high first-class award rates is likely to lead you toward a degree you are less motivated by, which is itself a predictor of weaker outcomes. The more useful question is whether you understand the award rate landscape of the subjects you are genuinely considering, and whether your expectations about degree outcomes are calibrated accordingly.
A student choosing between two subjects they are equally interested in, where one has a 50% first-class award rate and the other has a 20% rate, has relevant information to factor into that decision. A student choosing a subject they do not care about because the award rates are favourable is making a different kind of mistake. Our guide to how to choose the right degree works through this decision in a way that is worth reading before you finalise your choices.
What Actually Predicts Whether You Get a First?
This is the question that grade inflation data alone cannot answer, and it is arguably the most useful one for a prospective applicant to understand.
The nine-year study tracking nearly 9,000 STEM students at a Russell Group university mentioned earlier found that the single strongest predictor of achieving a first class degree was prior academic attainment, specifically the grades students arrived with. That relationship held stable across every year of the study, through the pandemic, through the grade inflation spike, and through the partial correction that followed. It was more powerful than school type, socioeconomic background, gender or any other variable tested.
The implication is both straightforward and important. The academic foundation you build before university, through your A-level preparation, subject choices and intellectual development during the application period, is a strong lever you have over your eventual degree outcome. Our guide to First Class Honours: What It Is and What Actually Predicts It covers the full evidence base behind this finding in detail.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Is a first class degree still worth aiming for?
Yes, unambiguously. Grade inflation has made a first more common than it used to be, but it has not made it meaningless. At selective institutions with rigorous assessment, a first remains a significant competitive advantage for graduate employment and postgraduate admissions. The IFS research cited in this article finds a measurable earnings premium for first class graduates over those with a 2:1, particularly in high-value graduate employment sectors. Aim for a first, understand the context in which it will be read, and choose your institution and subject with that context in mind.
Did COVID permanently change how UK universities grade students?
Not permanently, but it shifted the baseline. The pandemic accelerated a pre-existing trend rather than creating a new one, and the post-pandemic correction has not brought rates back to pre-inflation levels.
How do I know if my subject is affected by grade inflation?
The Office for Students and HESA publish degree classification data broken down by subject, which gives a reasonably clear picture of award rate trends by discipline. As a general guide, subjects with objective assessment criteria, such as mathematics, physics and engineering, tend to have more stable award rates than subjects assessed primarily through essays and coursework, where grade boundaries are more susceptible to drift. The research also shows significant variation in first-class award rates between subjects, from around 50% in Physics and Computer Science to 21.5% in Psychology at the Russell Group institution studied, which gives a useful sense of the range.
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